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# STAT-2002 Discussion Week 3 Applying Confidence Intervals to Make Predictions

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By Day 3

Post a 150- to 225-word (2- to 3-paragraph) explanation of how probability distributions affect management decisions. In your explanation, address the following:

• Provide your results of the following:
• The range within which 90% of the prices of cigarettes in your area falls
• The chances of anyone paying less than 4 dollars for a pack of cigarettes
• The chances of anyone paying more than 10 dollars for a pack of cigarettes
• Describe what implications this concept has for management decision making.
• Explain how you might use information like this in your current work.
• To support your response, be sure to reference at least one properly cited scholarly source.

By Day 5

Respond with at least 75 words (1 paragraph) each to two or more of your colleagues’ postings by doing one of the following

## Description

Discussion: How Probability Distributions Affect Decisions

Imagine if you were offered a job in a different state and a major consideration for you is rent prices (assuming you planned to rent instead of buy). Your main concerns are the affordability in relation to your income and the location/condition of the property. Perhaps you would look for the cheapest rent possible within a quiet, residential community. Or, you might be willing to spend at little more than average to live in the heart of downtown. As you research the city, you learn that the mean for rents of your preferred home size are \$1,300 a month. Many people might base their decision on this number alone, but you—equipped with the knowledge of standard deviation—know there is more to that number.

If the most you could afford is \$1,100 a month in rent, then a standard deviation of \$250 might be good news because the amount you can afford is still within 1 deviation of the mean. With a standard deviation of \$75, however, you might be unwilling to make the sacrifices necessary to rent a place that you could afford. Additionally, if you were willing to spend a little more than average to live in a nice place or area, then you could easily find an amazing place with a standard deviation of \$100 but might not be able to afford the upgrade with a standard deviation of \$300.

In this Discussion, you will use the data that you gathered in the Week 1 Discussion to calculate a standard deviation and explain how this concept can affect decision making.

To prepare for this Discussion:

• Review this week’s Learning Resources.
• Locate the data that you gathered for the Week 1 Discussion.
• Calculate the sample standard deviation from your cigarette price data in Week 1. Use that (and your sample average and sample size) to calculate the following (assuming a normal distribution):
• Within what range would you find 90% of cigarette prices in your area?
• What are the chances that someone in your area would pay 4 dollars or less per pack?
• What are the chances that someone in your area would pay 10 dollars or less per pack?
• Review the Academic Writing Expectations for 2000/3000-Level Courses, provided in this week’s Learning Resources.

By Day 3

Post a 150- to 225-word (2- to 3-paragraph) explanation of how probability distributions affect management decisions. In your explanation, address the following:

• Provide your results of the following:
• The range within which 90% of the prices of cigarettes in your area falls
• The chances of anyone paying less than 4 dollars for a pack of cigarettes
• The chances of anyone paying more than 10 dollars for a pack of cigarettes
• Describe what implications this concept has for management decision making.
• Explain how you might use information like this in your current work.
• To support your response, be sure to reference at least one properly cited scholarly source.

By Day 5

Respond with at least 75 words (1 paragraph) each to two or more of your colleagues’ postings by doing one of the following:

• Compare your results with your colleague’s results. If his or her results were very similar, combine your data and recalculate to get an estimate based on a larger sample. Explain what advantage this might have.
• Explain whether you agree or agree with your colleague’s ideas around statistics and management decisions. Did your peer miss any important points or raise any points you had not considered?

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